Happy 62th!

There are a few things in life that we do only once a year. And I just realized it yesterday that "panjat pinang" is actually one of those things. In Indonesia, we only do it on August 17th, on our Independence Day. "Panjat pinang" is a game where groups of people must climb a betel palm tree to get the prizes on its top. The only problem is the tree is spread with oil. So, in order to win they have to work together and do some acrobatic movement. The prizes range from a basket of food to a bike!


There are some other games that are usually played on the Independence Day such as "makan krupuk" (eating crackers that are hanged in front of your face while your hands are tied), "balap karung" (sack racing) or "tarik tambang" (tug of war), etc. But unlike "panjat pinang", these other games can easily be found in any social gatherings. You cannot see "panjat pinang" on other dates but August 17th.

Why bother talking about games on such an important day? Well, why not? Why should we spend energy on a dreary topic like what makes us proud to be Indonesian. I'm afraid I'll get frustrated on trying to find the answers. The recent poll (14-15 August, 2007) by Kompas shows that 34% of respondents in 2007 are not proud to be Indonesians whereas only 5.1% of respondents in 2002 felt that way. Oh dear!

A Wild Ride

Why do we hate corrections? Yes, they are bitter and painful but they also give us a chance for a healthier, stronger and further growth. Don’t they? Therefore we should actually celebrate what’s been happening in the global stock market i.e. a plunge triggered by the US credit crunch fallout over the past few weeks. The risk is now being repriced. Besides, we can’t have a bull market all the time, can we?

Well, it’s certainly easy for me to say that because I’m currently not holding any positions in any capital market instruments now ;-). Some fund managers however, whose funds are exposed to the US subprime mortgage, must be going through hell now. Yet it is still a nicer hell compared to the one that the investors are going through now.

So, it’s more of a show, a reality show, to me. I think the current situation of the global stock market should have won the prize for The Most Interesting Reality Show. So much drama and suspense. I’m willing to lose some sleep for having to stay up late, sometimes until 3 am Jakarta time, to watch CNBC. It’s been very amusing to see how the market players interpret and react to the situation. Analysts, traders, fund managers, investment strategist, academics or even central banks are all trying to figure out what’s been really happening with the market and most importantly what to do next. Sell? Hold? Or buy? They argue, they debate, they scream and they are confused. Central banks are criticized for injecting too much money or too little money or even for intervening/bailing out or not intervening the market. Chaotic!

The problem is nobody seems to know yet how big the exposure is until the dust settles. This adds nervousness to the frenzy and thus sends the volatility over the roof. It’s been a wild ride. Moreover, you cannot really trust the big houses these days. One day they say they have no exposure to the sub prime loan now but tomorrow they may say other things or already suspend the redemption of their funds.

So, buckle up! The show does not end yet.